Against solid economic fundamentals, Kaplan said current Fed policy remains “modestly” accommodative. It may achieve a “neutral” level with two to three quarter-point hikes toward 3 percent by June 2019. Kaplan’s comments came after the U.S. central bank on Wednesday released minutes on its Sept. 25-26 policy meeting where policy-makers agreed to raise key short-term interest rates for a third time in 2018 as the economy has been expanding at a faster pace due to the tax cuts enacted last December.
“The Fed is basically meeting its dual mandate,” Kaplan said, referring to U.S. unemployment hitting its lowest in almost 49 years in September and inflation near its 2 percent goal. Kaplan will be a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s policy-setting group, in 2020. His view is seen in step with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s.
Powell said earlier this month the U.S. economy can expand for “quite some time” and the Fed may raise interest rates past “neutral.” Kaplan expects economic growth to run about 3 percent in 2018 and the jobless rate, currently at 3.7 percent, to fall further.
While the economy will likely cool from current levels, he said he did not expect a U.S. recession anytime soon due to a strong consumer sector, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of overall economic activity.
Kaplan voiced concerns about challenges the economy faces including an aging workforce, a shrinking pool of skilled labor and geopolitical uncertainties.