Stock Market: World Economy Going Through Longest Period of Falling Trade Since 2009

Stock Market — The downturn in global trade dragged on at the end of last year, marking the longest period of contraction since the end of the financial crisis.

The volume of goods trade dropped 0.6 per cent in November compared to the previous month, and was down 1.1 per cent compared to the same month in 2018, according to a closely watched world trade monitor from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

November marked the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year contraction, the longest period of falling trade since 2009 and a sharp reversal from the 3.4 per cent expansion in November 2018.

The rate of contraction slowed in November, however, down from a 2 per cent pace in October, which was the steepest fall in a decade.

The annual contraction in trade- which is the value of exports and imports adjusted for price changes — was geographically broad-based with the eurozone, emerging Asia, the US and Latin America all reporting falling trade volumes.

However, trade was up over the previous month in emerging Asia, while the downturn became more severe in the eurozone where trade volumes dropped 1.7 per cent compared to October.

The data confirm surveys released earlier this month that showed a deterioration in global trade running until the end of the year. The exports order component of the JPMorgan Global purchasing manager index remained in negative territory in November and December, although up from September’s reading.

“International trade remains the main drag on efforts to lift growth further, so any moves that reduce tensions and barriers on this front will be especially beneficial.” Olya Borichevska, from Global Economic Research at JPMorgan.

Economists expect trade data to improve in early 2020, reflecting the signing of the US-China phase one trade deal earlier this month, as well as improving conditions in emerging economies such as Turkey. But a strong recovery is not on the cards yet.

“We think a recovery in world trade will be very modest, despite the pause in US-China hostilities” said Adam Slater, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

“World trade growth at this pace is less than half its long-term average.”







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3 thoughts on “Stock Market: World Economy Going Through Longest Period of Falling Trade Since 2009

  1. Pingback: World Economy Going Through Longest Period of Falling Trade Since 2009 via /r/economy | Chet Wang

  2. Pingback: World Economy Going Through Longest Period of Falling Trade Since 2009 -

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